Lübeck U19 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Lübeck U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arminia Bielefeld U19

3/21/2026

U19 Bundesliga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lübeck U1937%

×Draw20%

Arminia Bielefeld U1943%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lübeck U19Expected goals in this matchArminia Bielefeld U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

2.29

Lübeck U19

2.10

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 62 away

2.14

creates per match

1.44

3.14

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Lübeck U19

2.14

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.44

allows per match

Lübeck U19

3.14

Arminia Bielefeld U19

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lübeck U19+0.00on par

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lübeck U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Lübeck U19 or draw

57%

Lübeck U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19

80%

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19

63%

Winning margin

Lübeck U19 wins by 2+

20%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Lübeck U19 1+ goals

88%

Lübeck U19 2+ goals

62%

Lübeck U19 3+ goals

35%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

90%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

66%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Lübeck U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lübeck U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lübeck U19 attack 2.14 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.10

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Lübeck U19 defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lübeck U19 scores more

37%

level

20%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

43%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff