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Luarca vs Praviano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Luarca
Luarca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Praviano
Praviano
4/24/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 37Estadio La Veigona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Luarca34%
×Draw27%
Praviano39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luarca
1.18
Praviano
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 113 away

creates per match

Luarca
1.12
Praviano
1.18

allows per match

Luarca
1.39
Praviano
1.23

finishing

Luarca+0.00on par
Praviano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luarca ↓

Praviano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luarca or draw
61%
Luarca or Praviano
73%
Draw or Praviano
66%

Winning margin

Luarca wins by 2+
14%
Praviano wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Luarca 1+ goals
69%
Luarca 2+ goals
33%
Luarca 3+ goals
12%
Praviano 1+ goals
72%
Praviano 2+ goals
37%
Praviano 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Luarca (draw refunded)
47%
Praviano (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luarca at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Praviano away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luarca attack 1.12 + Praviano defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Praviano attack 1.18 + Luarca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Luarca scores more
34%
level
27%
Praviano scores more
39%

Praviano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Praviano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Luarca 1–1 Praviano

Luarca and Praviano drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio La Veigona in Luarca.