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Luarca vs Llanes — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Luarca
Luarca
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Llanes
Llanes
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio La Veigona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Luarca35%
×Draw27%
Llanes38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luarca
1.24
Llanes
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 94 away

creates per match

Luarca
1.12
Llanes
1.19

allows per match

Luarca
1.39
Llanes
1.36

finishing

Luarca+0.00on par
Llanes+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luarca ↓

Llanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luarca or draw
62%
Luarca or Llanes
73%
Draw or Llanes
65%

Winning margin

Luarca wins by 2+
15%
Llanes wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Luarca 1+ goals
71%
Luarca 2+ goals
35%
Luarca 3+ goals
13%
Llanes 1+ goals
72%
Llanes 2+ goals
37%
Llanes 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Luarca (draw refunded)
48%
Llanes (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luarca at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Llanes away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.36 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luarca attack 1.12 + Llanes defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Llanes attack 1.19 + Luarca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Luarca scores more
35%
level
27%
Llanes scores more
38%

Llanes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Llanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Luarca 1 – 3 Llanes

Llanes beat Luarca 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Veigona in Luarca.