Luanda Villa 0–1 Vihiga United FC: Result & Stats

Luanda Villa

FT

0 – 1

Vihiga United FC

11/2/2025

Super League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Luanda Villa56%

×Draw25%

Vihiga United FC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luanda VillaExpected goals in this matchVihiga United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.84

Luanda Villa

1.64

Vihiga United FC

0.84

Luanda Villa creates 95% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 55 away

1.49

creates per match

0.80

0.88

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Luanda Villa

1.49

Vihiga United FC

0.80

allows per match

Luanda Villa

0.88

Vihiga United FC

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par

Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Vihiga United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw

81%

Luanda Villa or Vihiga United FC

75%

Draw or Vihiga United FC

44%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+

31%

Vihiga United FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals

81%

Luanda Villa 2+ goals

49%

Luanda Villa 3+ goals

23%

Vihiga United FC 1+ goals

57%

Vihiga United FC 2+ goals

21%

Vihiga United FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)

75%

Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vihiga United FC attack 0.80 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Luanda Villa scores more

56%

level

25%

Vihiga United FC scores more

19%

Luanda Villa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff