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Luanda Villa vs Silibwet — Super League 2018

Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Silibwet
Silibwet
3/16/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 23Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Luanda Villa65%
×Draw21%
Silibwet14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda Villa
1.93
Silibwet
0.76

Luanda Villa creates 154% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 54 away

creates per match

Luanda Villa
1.49
Silibwet
0.63

allows per match

Luanda Villa
0.88
Silibwet
2.37

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par
Silibwet+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Silibwet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw
86%
Luanda Villa or Silibwet
79%
Draw or Silibwet
35%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+
39%
Silibwet wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals
85%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
57%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
30%
Silibwet 1+ goals
53%
Silibwet 2+ goals
18%
Silibwet 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
82%
Silibwet (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Silibwet away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.37 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Silibwet defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.93

Silibwet attack 0.63 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Luanda Villa scores more
65%
level
21%
Silibwet scores more
14%

Luanda Villa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Luanda Villa 3–1 Silibwet

Luanda Villa beat Silibwet 3-1 in Super League on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Mumboha Sports Ground in Luanda.