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Luanda Villa vs Migori Youth — Super League 2018

Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Migori Youth
Migori Youth
4/5/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Luanda Villa48%
×Draw28%
Migori Youth25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda Villa
1.37
Migori Youth
0.90

Luanda Villa creates 52% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 91 away

creates per match

Luanda Villa
1.49
Migori Youth
0.91

allows per match

Luanda Villa
0.88
Migori Youth
1.25

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par
Migori Youth+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Migori Youth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw
75%
Luanda Villa or Migori Youth
72%
Draw or Migori Youth
52%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+
23%
Migori Youth wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals
75%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
40%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
16%
Migori Youth 1+ goals
59%
Migori Youth 2+ goals
23%
Migori Youth 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
66%
Migori Youth (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Migori Youth away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Migori Youth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Migori Youth attack 0.91 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Luanda Villa scores more
48%
level
28%
Migori Youth scores more
25%

Luanda Villa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luanda Villa vs Migori Youth

Migori Youth beat Luanda Villa 3-0 in Super League on April 5, 2026.