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Luanda Villa vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

Luanda Villa
Luanda Villa
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
Unknown 46'
A. Nyagol 40'
T. Ndayala 34'
P. Munala 6'
B. Wepo 90+4'
Bala 15'
10/19/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Mumboha Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Luanda Villa50%
×Draw27%
Darajani Gogo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda Villa
1.39
Darajani Gogo
0.85

Luanda Villa creates 64% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 72 away

creates per match

Luanda Villa
1.49
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

Luanda Villa
0.88
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

Luanda Villa+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda Villa ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Luanda Villa or draw
77%
Luanda Villa or Darajani Gogo
73%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
50%

Winning margin

Luanda Villa wins by 2+
24%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Luanda Villa 1+ goals
75%
Luanda Villa 2+ goals
40%
Luanda Villa 3+ goals
16%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
57%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
21%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Luanda Villa (draw refunded)
68%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda Villa at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.88 · 57 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda Villa attack 1.49 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Luanda Villa defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Luanda Villa scores more
50%
level
27%
Darajani Gogo scores more
23%

Luanda Villa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Luanda Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Munala
15'
Bala
34'
T. Ndayala
40'
A. Nyagol
46'
90+4'
B. Wepo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Luanda Villa 4–2 Darajani Gogo

Luanda Villa beat Darajani Gogo 4-2 in Super League on October 19, 2024.

Goals: P. Munala (6'), Bala (15'), T. Ndayala (34'), A. Nyagol (40'), ? (46'), B. Wepo (90+4').

The match was played at Mumboha Sports Ground in Luanda.