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Luanda City vs Carmona — Girabola 2019

Luanda City
Luanda City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Carmona
Carmona
4/20/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 25Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Luanda City61%
×Draw24%
Carmona16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luanda City
1.69
Carmona
0.72

Luanda City creates 135% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Luanda City
0.90
Carmona
0.33

allows per match

Luanda City
1.10
Carmona
2.47

finishing

Luanda City+0.00on par
Carmona+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luanda City ↓

Carmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luanda City or draw
84%
Luanda City or Carmona
76%
Draw or Carmona
39%

Winning margin

Luanda City wins by 2+
34%
Carmona wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Luanda City 1+ goals
82%
Luanda City 2+ goals
50%
Luanda City 3+ goals
24%
Carmona 1+ goals
51%
Carmona 2+ goals
16%
Carmona 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Luanda City (draw refunded)
79%
Carmona (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luanda City at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Carmona away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luanda City attack 0.90 + Carmona defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Carmona attack 0.33 + Luanda City defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Luanda City scores more
61%
level
24%
Carmona scores more
16%

Luanda City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Luanda City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Luanda City vs Carmona

Luanda City beat Carmona 1-0 in Girabola on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.