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LTU vs PiPS — Suomen Cup 2018

LTU
LTU
FT
5 – 0
PiPS
PiPS
2/28/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundPuuha-areena KHT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

LTU44%
×Draw20%
PiPS36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LTU
2.20
PiPS
2.00

LTU creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

LTU
3.00
PiPS
2.40

allows per match

LTU
1.60
PiPS
1.40

finishing

LTU+0.00on par
PiPS+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LTU ↓

PiPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

LTU or draw
64%
LTU or PiPS
80%
Draw or PiPS
56%

Winning margin

LTU wins by 2+
25%
PiPS wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

LTU 1+ goals
89%
LTU 2+ goals
64%
LTU 3+ goals
37%
PiPS 1+ goals
86%
PiPS 2+ goals
59%
PiPS 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

LTU (draw refunded)
55%
PiPS (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LTU at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

PiPS away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LTU attack 3.00 + PiPS defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

PiPS attack 2.40 + LTU defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

LTU scores more
44%
level
20%
PiPS scores more
36%

LTU at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "LTU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LTU 5 – 0 PiPS

LTU beat PiPS 5-0 in Suomen Cup on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Puuha-areena KHT in Kaarina.