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LSK Kvinner W vs Arna-Bjørnar W — Toppserien 2021

LSK Kvinner W
LSK Kvinner W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arna-Bjørnar W
Arna-Bjørnar W
4/13/2024ToppserienToppserien · Round 3LSK-hallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

LSK Kvinner W64%
×Draw19%
Arna-Bjørnar W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LSK Kvinner W
2.34
Arna-Bjørnar W
1.15

LSK Kvinner W creates 103% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 45 away

creates per match

LSK Kvinner W
1.81
Arna-Bjørnar W
0.96

allows per match

LSK Kvinner W
1.33
Arna-Bjørnar W
2.87

finishing

LSK Kvinner W+0.00on par
Arna-Bjørnar W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LSK Kvinner W ↓

Arna-Bjørnar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

LSK Kvinner W or draw
82%
LSK Kvinner W or Arna-Bjørnar W
81%
Draw or Arna-Bjørnar W
36%

Winning margin

LSK Kvinner W wins by 2+
41%
Arna-Bjørnar W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

LSK Kvinner W 1+ goals
90%
LSK Kvinner W 2+ goals
67%
LSK Kvinner W 3+ goals
41%
Arna-Bjørnar W 1+ goals
68%
Arna-Bjørnar W 2+ goals
32%
Arna-Bjørnar W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

LSK Kvinner W (draw refunded)
78%
Arna-Bjørnar W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LSK Kvinner W at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

Arna-Bjørnar W away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.87 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LSK Kvinner W attack 1.81 + Arna-Bjørnar W defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.34

Arna-Bjørnar W attack 0.96 + LSK Kvinner W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

LSK Kvinner W scores more
64%
level
19%
Arna-Bjørnar W scores more
18%

LSK Kvinner W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "LSK Kvinner W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toppserien: LSK Kvinner W 3–0 Arna-Bjørnar W

LSK Kvinner W beat Arna-Bjørnar W 3-0 in Toppserien on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at LSK-hallen in Lillestrøm.