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LPS vs MyPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

LPS
LPS
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
MyPa
MyPa
6/2/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 7Hertta Areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

LPS22%
×Draw18%
MyPa60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPS
1.72
MyPa
2.83

MyPa creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 45 away

creates per match

LPS
0.91
MyPa
1.58

allows per match

LPS
4.09
MyPa
2.53

finishing

LPS+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

LPS or draw
40%
LPS or MyPa
82%
Draw or MyPa
78%

Winning margin

LPS wins by 2+
10%
MyPa wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

LPS 1+ goals
82%
LPS 2+ goals
51%
LPS 3+ goals
25%
MyPa 1+ goals
94%
MyPa 2+ goals
77%
MyPa 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

LPS (draw refunded)
27%
MyPa (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS at home — creates 0.91, concedes 4.09 · 11 matches

MyPa away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS attack 0.91 + MyPa defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.72

MyPa attack 1.58 + LPS defence 4.09 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

LPS scores more
22%
level
18%
MyPa scores more
60%

MyPa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "MyPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: LPS 2–5 MyPa

MyPa beat LPS 5-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on June 2, 2018.

The match was played at Hertta Areena (Helsinki).