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LPS vs MP — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

LPS
LPS
FT
2 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
MP
MP
8/25/2018Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 18Hertta Areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

LPS9%
×Draw13%
MP79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPS
1.00
MP
3.16

MP creates 216% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

LPS
0.91
MP
2.23

allows per match

LPS
4.09
MP
1.09

finishing

LPS+0.00on par
MP+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS ↓

MP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

LPS or draw
21%
LPS or MP
87%
Draw or MP
91%

Winning margin

LPS wins by 2+
3%
MP wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

LPS 1+ goals
63%
LPS 2+ goals
26%
LPS 3+ goals
8%
MP 1+ goals
96%
MP 2+ goals
82%
MP 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

LPS (draw refunded)
10%
MP (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS at home — creates 0.91, concedes 4.09 · 11 matches

MP away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS attack 0.91 + MP defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

MP attack 2.23 + LPS defence 4.09 → ÷2 → 3.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

LPS scores more
9%
level
13%
MP scores more
79%

MP at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "MP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: LPS 2–7 MP

MP beat LPS 7-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Hertta Areena (Helsinki).