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LPS vs EPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

LPS
LPS
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EPS II
EPS II
4/24/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundSaari Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

LPS12%
×Draw13%
EPS II75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPS
1.44
EPS II
3.58

EPS II creates 149% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

LPS
1.67
EPS II
5.00

allows per match

LPS
2.17
EPS II
1.20

finishing

LPS+0.00on par
EPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS ↓

EPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

LPS or draw
25%
LPS or EPS II
87%
Draw or EPS II
88%

Winning margin

LPS wins by 2+
5%
EPS II wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

LPS 1+ goals
76%
LPS 2+ goals
42%
LPS 3+ goals
18%
EPS II 1+ goals
97%
EPS II 2+ goals
86%
EPS II 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

LPS (draw refunded)
14%
EPS II (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

EPS II away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS attack 1.67 + EPS II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

EPS II attack 5.00 + LPS defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

LPS scores more
12%
level
13%
EPS II scores more
75%

EPS II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "EPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: LPS 4–0 EPS II

LPS beat EPS II 4-0 in Suomen Cup on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Saari Areena TN in Helsinki.