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LPS HD Clinceni vs Înainte Modelu — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

LPS HD Clinceni
LPS HD Clinceni
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Înainte Modelu
Înainte Modelu
10/21/2023Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 9Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPS HD Clinceni56%
×Draw20%
Înainte Modelu24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPS HD Clinceni
2.20
Înainte Modelu
1.39

LPS HD Clinceni creates 58% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 62 away

creates per match

LPS HD Clinceni
2.54
Înainte Modelu
1.08

allows per match

LPS HD Clinceni
1.69
Înainte Modelu
1.85

finishing

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par
Înainte Modelu+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS HD Clinceni ↓

Înainte Modelu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

LPS HD Clinceni or draw
76%
LPS HD Clinceni or Înainte Modelu
80%
Draw or Înainte Modelu
44%

Winning margin

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+
34%
Înainte Modelu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals
89%
LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals
64%
LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals
37%
Înainte Modelu 1+ goals
75%
Înainte Modelu 2+ goals
40%
Înainte Modelu 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)
70%
Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS HD Clinceni at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Înainte Modelu away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS HD Clinceni attack 2.54 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.20

Înainte Modelu attack 1.08 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

LPS HD Clinceni scores more
56%
level
20%
Înainte Modelu scores more
24%

LPS HD Clinceni at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "LPS HD Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: LPS HD Clinceni 3–1 Înainte Modelu

LPS HD Clinceni beat Înainte Modelu 3-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.