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LPS HD Clinceni vs Axiopolis — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

LPS HD Clinceni
LPS HD Clinceni
FT
3 – 1
Axiopolis
Axiopolis
3/16/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 17Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPS HD Clinceni52%
×Draw20%
Axiopolis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPS HD Clinceni
2.33
Axiopolis
1.69

LPS HD Clinceni creates 38% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

LPS HD Clinceni
2.54
Axiopolis
1.69

allows per match

LPS HD Clinceni
1.69
Axiopolis
2.12

finishing

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par
Axiopolis+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS HD Clinceni ↓

Axiopolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

LPS HD Clinceni or draw
72%
LPS HD Clinceni or Axiopolis
80%
Draw or Axiopolis
48%

Winning margin

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+
32%
Axiopolis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals
90%
LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals
67%
LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals
41%
Axiopolis 1+ goals
82%
Axiopolis 2+ goals
50%
Axiopolis 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)
65%
Axiopolis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS HD Clinceni at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Axiopolis away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS HD Clinceni attack 2.54 + Axiopolis defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.33

Axiopolis attack 1.69 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

LPS HD Clinceni scores more
52%
level
20%
Axiopolis scores more
28%

LPS HD Clinceni at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "LPS HD Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: LPS HD Clinceni 3–1 Axiopolis

LPS HD Clinceni beat Axiopolis 3-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.