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LPS HD Clinceni vs Agricola Borcea — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

LPS HD Clinceni
LPS HD Clinceni
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Agricola Borcea
Agricola Borcea
4/6/2024Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 2Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPS HD Clinceni53%
×Draw20%
Agricola Borcea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPS HD Clinceni
2.35
Agricola Borcea
1.67

LPS HD Clinceni creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 62 away

creates per match

LPS HD Clinceni
2.54
Agricola Borcea
1.66

allows per match

LPS HD Clinceni
1.69
Agricola Borcea
2.16

finishing

LPS HD Clinceni+0.00on par
Agricola Borcea+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPS HD Clinceni ↓

Agricola Borcea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

LPS HD Clinceni or draw
73%
LPS HD Clinceni or Agricola Borcea
80%
Draw or Agricola Borcea
47%

Winning margin

LPS HD Clinceni wins by 2+
32%
Agricola Borcea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

LPS HD Clinceni 1+ goals
90%
LPS HD Clinceni 2+ goals
68%
LPS HD Clinceni 3+ goals
41%
Agricola Borcea 1+ goals
81%
Agricola Borcea 2+ goals
50%
Agricola Borcea 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

LPS HD Clinceni (draw refunded)
66%
Agricola Borcea (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPS HD Clinceni at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Agricola Borcea away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.16 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPS HD Clinceni attack 2.54 + Agricola Borcea defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.35

Agricola Borcea attack 1.66 + LPS HD Clinceni defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

LPS HD Clinceni scores more
53%
level
20%
Agricola Borcea scores more
27%

LPS HD Clinceni at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "LPS HD Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Serie 3: LPS HD Clinceni 1–2 Agricola Borcea

Agricola Borcea beat LPS HD Clinceni 2-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Clinceni - Arena 1 in Clinceni.