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LPRC Oilers vs Shaita — LFA First Division 2020

LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shaita
Shaita
11/20/2024LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPRC Oilers47%
×Draw22%
Shaita31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPRC Oilers
1.88
Shaita
1.50

LPRC Oilers creates 25% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 13 away

creates per match

LPRC Oilers
1.67
Shaita
1.62

allows per match

LPRC Oilers
1.39
Shaita
2.08

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par
Shaita+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Shaita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw
69%
LPRC Oilers or Shaita
78%
Draw or Shaita
53%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
26%
Shaita wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
85%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
56%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
29%
Shaita 1+ goals
78%
Shaita 2+ goals
44%
Shaita 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
60%
Shaita (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Shaita away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Shaita defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

Shaita attack 1.62 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more
47%
level
22%
Shaita scores more
31%

LPRC Oilers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LPRC Oilers vs Shaita

LPRC Oilers beat Shaita 3-1 in LFA First Division on November 20, 2024.

The match was played at Nancy B. Doe Sports Stadium in Kakata.