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LPRC Oilers vs Muscat — LFA First Division 2020

LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
FT
1 – 2
Muscat
Muscat
10/12/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 7TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

LPRC Oilers46%
×Draw24%
Muscat30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPRC Oilers
1.68
Muscat
1.31

LPRC Oilers creates 28% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 13 away

creates per match

LPRC Oilers
1.67
Muscat
1.23

allows per match

LPRC Oilers
1.39
Muscat
1.69

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par
Muscat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Muscat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw
70%
LPRC Oilers or Muscat
76%
Draw or Muscat
54%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
24%
Muscat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
81%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
50%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
24%
Muscat 1+ goals
73%
Muscat 2+ goals
38%
Muscat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
61%
Muscat (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Muscat away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Muscat defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.68

Muscat attack 1.23 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more
46%
level
24%
Muscat scores more
30%

LPRC Oilers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: LPRC Oilers 1–2 Muscat

Muscat beat LPRC Oilers 2-1 in LFA First Division on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.