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LPRC Oilers vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

LPRC Oilers
LPRC Oilers
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
11/2/2025LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

LPRC Oilers40%
×Draw24%
Heaven Eleven36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

LPRC Oilers
1.58
Heaven Eleven
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

creates per match

LPRC Oilers
1.67
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

LPRC Oilers
1.39
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw
64%
LPRC Oilers or Heaven Eleven
76%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
60%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+
20%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals
79%
LPRC Oilers 2+ goals
47%
LPRC Oilers 3+ goals
21%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
77%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
43%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)
53%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more
40%
level
24%
Heaven Eleven scores more
36%

LPRC Oilers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: LPRC Oilers vs Heaven Eleven

LPRC Oilers and Heaven Eleven drew 2-2 in LFA First Division on November 2, 2025.