LPRC Oilers 1–0 Génération Foot: Result & Stats

LPRC Oilers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Génération Foot

8/11/2019

CAF Champions League · Preliminary RoundAntoinette Tubman Stadium (Monrovia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LPRC Oilers38%

×Draw45%

Génération Foot16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LPRC OilersExpected goals in this matchGénération Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

0.34

LPRC Oilers

0.67

Génération Foot

0.34

LPRC Oilers creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

0.00

0.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

LPRC Oilers

0.67

Génération Foot

0.00

allows per match

LPRC Oilers

0.67

Génération Foot

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Génération Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under92
Over8

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No86
Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Génération Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–036%

0–112%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–024%

1–18%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–13%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (36%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

64%36%1.5

27%73%2.5

8%92%3.5

2%98%4.5

0%100%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw

84%

LPRC Oilers or Génération Foot

55%

Draw or Génération Foot

62%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

11%

Génération Foot wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

49%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

15%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

3%

Génération Foot 1+ goals

29%

Génération Foot 2+ goals

5%

Génération Foot 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

70%

Génération Foot (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

6%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Génération Foot away — creates 0.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 0.67 + Génération Foot defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Génération Foot attack 0.00 + LPRC Oilers defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more

38%

level

45%

Génération Foot scores more

16%

LPRC Oilers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff