LPRC Oilers 1–0 Black Man Warrior: Result & Stats

LPRC Oilers

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Black Man Warrior

11/17/2025

LFA First Division · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

LPRC Oilers45%

×Draw26%

Black Man Warrior29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LPRC OilersExpected goals in this matchBlack Man Warrior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.12

LPRC Oilers

1.46

Black Man Warrior

1.12

LPRC Oilers creates 30% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 27 away

1.67

creates per match

0.85

1.39

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

LPRC Oilers

1.67

Black Man Warrior

0.85

allows per match

LPRC Oilers

1.39

Black Man Warrior

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Black Man Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LPRC Oilers ↓

Black Man Warrior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

LPRC Oilers or draw

71%

LPRC Oilers or Black Man Warrior

74%

Draw or Black Man Warrior

55%

Winning margin

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

22%

Black Man Warrior wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

77%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

43%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

18%

Black Man Warrior 1+ goals

67%

Black Man Warrior 2+ goals

31%

Black Man Warrior 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

61%

Black Man Warrior (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LPRC Oilers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.39 · 75 matches

Black Man Warrior away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LPRC Oilers attack 1.67 + Black Man Warrior defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Black Man Warrior attack 0.85 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

LPRC Oilers scores more

45%

level

26%

Black Man Warrior scores more

29%

LPRC Oilers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff