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Lozo vs Vautour Club — Championnat D1 2022

Lozo
Lozo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vautour Club
Vautour Club
6/6/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lozo31%
×Draw29%
Vautour Club40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lozo
1.02
Vautour Club
1.20

Vautour Club creates 18% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lozo
0.84
Vautour Club
1.36

allows per match

Lozo
1.03
Vautour Club
1.21

finishing

Lozo+0.00on par
Vautour Club+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lozo ↓

Vautour Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lozo or draw
60%
Lozo or Vautour Club
71%
Draw or Vautour Club
69%

Winning margin

Lozo wins by 2+
12%
Vautour Club wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lozo 1+ goals
64%
Lozo 2+ goals
27%
Lozo 3+ goals
8%
Vautour Club 1+ goals
70%
Vautour Club 2+ goals
34%
Vautour Club 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lozo (draw refunded)
44%
Vautour Club (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lozo at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Vautour Club away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.21 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lozo attack 0.84 + Vautour Club defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Vautour Club attack 1.36 + Lozo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lozo scores more
31%
level
29%
Vautour Club scores more
40%

Vautour Club at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vautour Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lozo vs Vautour Club

Lozo beat Vautour Club 1-0 in Championnat D1 on June 6, 2026.