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Lozo vs Stade Mandji — Championnat D1 2022

Lozo
Lozo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Mandji
Stade Mandji
4/21/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lozo30%
×Draw33%
Stade Mandji38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lozo
0.84
Stade Mandji
0.98

Stade Mandji creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lozo
0.84
Stade Mandji
0.94

allows per match

Lozo
1.03
Stade Mandji
0.84

finishing

Lozo+0.00on par
Stade Mandji+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lozo ↓

Stade Mandji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Lozo or draw
62%
Lozo or Stade Mandji
67%
Draw or Stade Mandji
70%

Winning margin

Lozo wins by 2+
10%
Stade Mandji wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lozo 1+ goals
57%
Lozo 2+ goals
21%
Lozo 3+ goals
5%
Stade Mandji 1+ goals
62%
Stade Mandji 2+ goals
26%
Stade Mandji 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lozo (draw refunded)
44%
Stade Mandji (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lozo at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Stade Mandji away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lozo attack 0.84 + Stade Mandji defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Stade Mandji attack 0.94 + Lozo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lozo scores more
30%
level
33%
Stade Mandji scores more
38%

Stade Mandji at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stade Mandji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lozo 0 – 1 Stade Mandji

Stade Mandji beat Lozo 1-0 in Championnat D1 on April 21, 2026.