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Lozo vs Pélican — Championnat D1 2022

Lozo
Lozo
FT
0 – 0
Pélican
Pélican
3/22/2025Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 16Stade Mbeba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lozo34%
×Draw29%
Pélican37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lozo
1.11
Pélican
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lozo
0.84
Pélican
1.29

allows per match

Lozo
1.03
Pélican
1.39

finishing

Lozo+0.00on par
Pélican+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lozo ↓

Pélican →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lozo or draw
63%
Lozo or Pélican
71%
Draw or Pélican
66%

Winning margin

Lozo wins by 2+
14%
Pélican wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lozo 1+ goals
67%
Lozo 2+ goals
30%
Lozo 3+ goals
10%
Pélican 1+ goals
69%
Pélican 2+ goals
32%
Pélican 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lozo (draw refunded)
48%
Pélican (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lozo at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Pélican away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lozo attack 0.84 + Pélican defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.11

Pélican attack 1.29 + Lozo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lozo scores more
34%
level
29%
Pélican scores more
37%

Pélican at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pélican will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lozo 0 – 0 Pélican

Lozo and Pélican drew 0-0 in Championnat D1 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mbeba in Lastoursville.