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Lozo vs Oyem AC — Championnat D1 2022

Lozo
Lozo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oyem AC
Oyem AC
5/5/2026Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Lozo24%
×Draw28%
Oyem AC48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lozo
0.88
Oyem AC
1.36

Oyem AC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lozo
0.84
Oyem AC
1.69

allows per match

Lozo
1.03
Oyem AC
0.92

finishing

Lozo+0.00on par
Oyem AC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lozo ↓

Oyem AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lozo or draw
52%
Lozo or Oyem AC
72%
Draw or Oyem AC
76%

Winning margin

Lozo wins by 2+
8%
Oyem AC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lozo 1+ goals
59%
Lozo 2+ goals
22%
Lozo 3+ goals
6%
Oyem AC 1+ goals
74%
Oyem AC 2+ goals
39%
Oyem AC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lozo (draw refunded)
34%
Oyem AC (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lozo at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Oyem AC away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lozo attack 0.84 + Oyem AC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.88

Oyem AC attack 1.69 + Lozo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lozo scores more
24%
level
28%
Oyem AC scores more
48%

Oyem AC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oyem AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat D1: Lozo 0–1 Oyem AC

Oyem AC beat Lozo 1-0 in Championnat D1 on May 5, 2026.