Lozo 0–2 Mangasport: Result & Stats

Lozo

FT

0 – 2

Mangasport

4/30/2025

Championnat D1 · Round 19Stade Mbeba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lozo19%

×Draw29%

Mangasport51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LozoExpected goals in this matchMangasport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.66

1.27

Lozo

0.66

Mangasport

1.27

Mangasport creates 92% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

0.84

creates per match

1.52

1.03

allows per match

0.48

creates per match

Lozo

0.84

Mangasport

1.52

allows per match

Lozo

1.03

Mangasport

0.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lozo+0.00on par

Mangasport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lozo ↓

Mangasport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–118%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lozo or draw

49%

Lozo or Mangasport

71%

Draw or Mangasport

81%

Winning margin

Lozo wins by 2+

5%

Mangasport wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Lozo 1+ goals

48%

Lozo 2+ goals

14%

Lozo 3+ goals

3%

Mangasport 1+ goals

72%

Mangasport 2+ goals

36%

Mangasport 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lozo (draw refunded)

27%

Mangasport (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lozo at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Mangasport away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lozo attack 0.84 + Mangasport defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.66

Mangasport attack 1.52 + Lozo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lozo scores more

19%

level

29%

Mangasport scores more

51%

Mangasport at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mangasport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff