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Lozo vs Dikaki — Championnat D1 2022

Lozo
Lozo
FT
2 – 0
Dikaki
Dikaki
2/8/2025Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 13Stade Mbeba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lozo47%
×Draw28%
Dikaki25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lozo
1.33
Dikaki
0.88

Lozo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lozo
0.84
Dikaki
0.73

allows per match

Lozo
1.03
Dikaki
1.82

finishing

Lozo+0.00on par
Dikaki+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lozo ↓

Dikaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lozo or draw
75%
Lozo or Dikaki
72%
Draw or Dikaki
53%

Winning margin

Lozo wins by 2+
22%
Dikaki wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lozo 1+ goals
74%
Lozo 2+ goals
38%
Lozo 3+ goals
15%
Dikaki 1+ goals
59%
Dikaki 2+ goals
22%
Dikaki 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lozo (draw refunded)
66%
Dikaki (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lozo at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Dikaki away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lozo attack 0.84 + Dikaki defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dikaki attack 0.73 + Lozo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lozo scores more
47%
level
28%
Dikaki scores more
25%

Lozo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lozo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lozo 2 – 0 Dikaki

Lozo beat Dikaki 2-0 in Championnat D1 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mbeba in Lastoursville.