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Lozo vs Cercle Mbéri — Championnat D1 2022

Lozo
Lozo
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Cercle Mbéri
Cercle Mbéri
5/14/2025Championnat D1Championnat D1 · Round 25Stade Mbeba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lozo24%
×Draw31%
Cercle Mbéri45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lozo
0.77
Cercle Mbéri
1.17

Cercle Mbéri creates 52% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lozo
0.84
Cercle Mbéri
1.30

allows per match

Lozo
1.03
Cercle Mbéri
0.70

finishing

Lozo+0.00on par
Cercle Mbéri+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lozo ↓

Cercle Mbéri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lozo or draw
55%
Lozo or Cercle Mbéri
69%
Draw or Cercle Mbéri
76%

Winning margin

Lozo wins by 2+
7%
Cercle Mbéri wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lozo 1+ goals
54%
Lozo 2+ goals
18%
Lozo 3+ goals
4%
Cercle Mbéri 1+ goals
69%
Cercle Mbéri 2+ goals
33%
Cercle Mbéri 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lozo (draw refunded)
35%
Cercle Mbéri (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lozo at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.03 · 31 matches

Cercle Mbéri away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lozo attack 0.84 + Cercle Mbéri defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Cercle Mbéri attack 1.30 + Lozo defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lozo scores more
24%
level
31%
Cercle Mbéri scores more
45%

Cercle Mbéri at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cercle Mbéri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lozo vs Cercle Mbéri

Cercle Mbéri beat Lozo 4-0 in Championnat D1 on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Mbeba in Lastoursville.