Loznica 2–0 FAP: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Loznica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FAP

S. Purtic 62'

V. Petrovic 49'

11/28/2025

Prva Liga · Round 20Lagator Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Loznica53%

×Draw24%

FAP23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoznicaExpected goals in this matchFAP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.06

Loznica

1.72

FAP

1.06

Loznica creates 62% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 20 away

1.54

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Loznica

1.54

FAP

1.05

allows per match

Loznica

1.07

FAP

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loznica+0.00on par

FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loznica ↓

FAP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Loznica or draw

77%

Loznica or FAP

76%

Draw or FAP

47%

Winning margin

Loznica wins by 2+

29%

FAP wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Loznica 1+ goals

82%

Loznica 2+ goals

51%

Loznica 3+ goals

25%

FAP 1+ goals

65%

FAP 2+ goals

29%

FAP 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Loznica (draw refunded)

69%

FAP (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loznica at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

FAP away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loznica attack 1.54 + FAP defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.72

FAP attack 1.05 + Loznica defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Loznica scores more

53%

level

24%

FAP scores more

23%

Loznica at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Loznica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

21'

24'

35'

49'

53'

V. Plazinic← Z. Bogdanovic

53'

N. Veselinovic← S. Carapic

62'

S. Purtic

65'

D. Susnjar← S. Stojanovic

65'

P. Cirkovic← S. Ilic

70'

M. Otasevic← M. Bojovic

76'

I. Petrovic

78'

N. Brkic← V. Petrovic

79'

B. Milosevic

84'

O. Todorovic← N. Obucina

86'

M. Divac← M. Jelenic

86'

K. Opoku Ackah← N. Vujicic

88'

P. Cirkovic

Loznica

FAP

12

Barac

4

Miraljemo

6

▼

Bogdanovi

7

▼

Obucina

10

▼

15

19

29

33

44

88

▼

1

4

5

6

▼

Vujicic

20

▼

Ilic

23

Petrovic

24

▼

Jelenic

27

Mitrovic

70

▼

Stojanovi

89

⚽

▼

Petrovic

77

⚽

Purtic

Manager: Dejan Nikolic

65'▲D. Susnjar←▼S. Stojanovic

65'▲P. Cirkovic←▼S. Ilic

78'▲N. Brkic←▼V. Petrovic

86'▲M. Divac←▼M. Jelenic

86'▲K. Opoku Ackah←▼N. Vujicic

Loznica substitutes

3Divac7Malis8Brkic11Komarcevic14Susnjar16Ackah18Cirkovic19Obadovic21Divnic22Terzic43Antonic

Manager: Zoran Kostic

53'▲V. Plazinic←▼Z. Bogdanovic

53'▲N. Veselinovic←▼S. Carapic

70'▲M. Otasevic←▼M. Bojovic

84'▲O. Todorovic←▼N. Obucina

FAP substitutes

21Vranes2Carvalho3Banjac5Stowe8Plazinic9Veselinovic11Andjelkovic13Silva14Otasevic17Todorovic20Tukuljac

Prva Liga: Loznica 2–0 FAP

Loznica beat FAP 2-0 in Prva Liga on November 28, 2025.

Goals: V. Petrovic (49'), S. Purtic (62').

The match was played at Lagator Stadium in Loznica.

Loznica vs FAP — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Prva Liga: Loznica 2–0 FAP