Loyola 2–0 PFF Developmental Club: Result & Stats

Loyola

FT

2 – 0

PFF Developmental Club

1/26/2025

PFL · Round 4Biñan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Loyola59%

×Draw19%

PFF Developmental Club22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoyolaExpected goals in this matchPFF Developmental Club

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.42

Loyola

2.39

PFF Developmental Club

1.42

Loyola creates 68% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

1.88

creates per match

0.40

2.44

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Loyola

1.88

PFF Developmental Club

0.40

allows per match

Loyola

2.44

PFF Developmental Club

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loyola+0.00on par

PFF Developmental Club+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loyola ↓

PFF Developmental Club →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Loyola or draw

78%

Loyola or PFF Developmental Club

81%

Draw or PFF Developmental Club

41%

Winning margin

Loyola wins by 2+

37%

PFF Developmental Club wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Loyola 1+ goals

91%

Loyola 2+ goals

69%

Loyola 3+ goals

42%

PFF Developmental Club 1+ goals

76%

PFF Developmental Club 2+ goals

41%

PFF Developmental Club 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Loyola (draw refunded)

73%

PFF Developmental Club (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loyola at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

PFF Developmental Club away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loyola attack 1.88 + PFF Developmental Club defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.39

PFF Developmental Club attack 0.40 + Loyola defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Loyola scores more

59%

level

19%

PFF Developmental Club scores more

22%

Loyola at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Loyola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff