Loyola 0–1 Mendiola: Result & Stats | PFL

Loyola

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mendiola

2/22/2025

PFL · Round 6Biñan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Loyola59%

×Draw18%

Mendiola23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoyolaExpected goals in this matchMendiola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.78

1.75

Loyola

2.78

Mendiola

1.75

Loyola creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

1.88

creates per match

1.05

2.44

allows per match

3.68

creates per match

Loyola

1.88

Mendiola

1.05

allows per match

Loyola

2.44

Mendiola

3.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loyola+0.00on par

Mendiola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loyola ↓

Mendiola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Loyola or draw

77%

Loyola or Mendiola

82%

Draw or Mendiola

41%

Winning margin

Loyola wins by 2+

39%

Mendiola wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Loyola 1+ goals

94%

Loyola 2+ goals

76%

Loyola 3+ goals

51%

Mendiola 1+ goals

83%

Mendiola 2+ goals

52%

Mendiola 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Loyola (draw refunded)

71%

Mendiola (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loyola at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Mendiola away — creates 1.05, concedes 3.68 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loyola attack 1.88 + Mendiola defence 3.68 → ÷2 → 2.78

Mendiola attack 1.05 + Loyola defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Loyola scores more

59%

level

18%

Mendiola scores more

23%

Loyola at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Loyola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff