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Loyola vs Kaya — PFL 2020

Loyola
Loyola
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kaya
Kaya
4/2/2025PFLPFL · Round 8Iloilo Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Loyola16%
×Draw16%
Kaya68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loyola
1.31
Kaya
2.79

Kaya creates 113% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 39 away

creates per match

Loyola
1.88
Kaya
3.13

allows per match

Loyola
2.44
Kaya
0.74

finishing

Loyola+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loyola ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Loyola or draw
32%
Loyola or Kaya
84%
Draw or Kaya
84%

Winning margin

Loyola wins by 2+
6%
Kaya wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Loyola 1+ goals
73%
Loyola 2+ goals
38%
Loyola 3+ goals
14%
Kaya 1+ goals
94%
Kaya 2+ goals
76%
Kaya 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Loyola (draw refunded)
19%
Kaya (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loyola at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Kaya away — creates 3.13, concedes 0.74 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loyola attack 1.88 + Kaya defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kaya attack 3.13 + Loyola defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Loyola scores more
16%
level
16%
Kaya scores more
68%

Kaya at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loyola vs Kaya

Kaya beat Loyola 1-0 in PFL on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Iloilo Sports Complex in Iloilo City.