Loyola 0–3 Davao Aguilas: Result & Stats | PFL

Loyola

FT

0 – 3

Davao Aguilas

9/28/2024

PFL · Round 1Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Loyola25%

×Draw21%

Davao Aguilas54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoyolaExpected goals in this matchDavao Aguilas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.20

Loyola

1.46

Davao Aguilas

2.20

Davao Aguilas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 27 away

1.88

creates per match

1.96

2.44

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Loyola

1.88

Davao Aguilas

1.96

allows per match

Loyola

2.44

Davao Aguilas

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loyola+0.00on par

Davao Aguilas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loyola ↓

Davao Aguilas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Loyola or draw

46%

Loyola or Davao Aguilas

79%

Draw or Davao Aguilas

75%

Winning margin

Loyola wins by 2+

11%

Davao Aguilas wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Loyola 1+ goals

77%

Loyola 2+ goals

43%

Loyola 3+ goals

18%

Davao Aguilas 1+ goals

89%

Davao Aguilas 2+ goals

64%

Davao Aguilas 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Loyola (draw refunded)

32%

Davao Aguilas (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loyola at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Davao Aguilas away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loyola attack 1.88 + Davao Aguilas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Davao Aguilas attack 1.96 + Loyola defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Loyola scores more

25%

level

21%

Davao Aguilas scores more

54%

Davao Aguilas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Davao Aguilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff