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Loyola vs Ceres — PFL 2020

Loyola
Loyola
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Ceres
Ceres
6/30/2024PFLPFL · Round 10Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Loyola13%
×Draw13%
Ceres74%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loyola
1.51
Ceres
3.57

Ceres creates 136% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Loyola
1.88
Ceres
4.69

allows per match

Loyola
2.44
Ceres
1.15

finishing

Loyola+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loyola ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Loyola or draw
26%
Loyola or Ceres
87%
Draw or Ceres
87%

Winning margin

Loyola wins by 2+
5%
Ceres wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Loyola 1+ goals
78%
Loyola 2+ goals
44%
Loyola 3+ goals
19%
Ceres 1+ goals
97%
Ceres 2+ goals
86%
Ceres 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Loyola (draw refunded)
15%
Ceres (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loyola at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

Ceres away — creates 4.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loyola attack 1.88 + Ceres defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ceres attack 4.69 + Loyola defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 3.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Loyola scores more
13%
level
13%
Ceres scores more
74%

Ceres at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Loyola 0–6 Ceres

Ceres beat Loyola 6-0 in PFL on June 30, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.