IK Frej 0–3 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

IK Frej

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Syrianska FC

4/7/2019

Superettan · Round 2Vikingavallen (Täby)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IK Frej45%

×Draw24%

Syrianska FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK FrejExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.37

IK Frej

1.70

Syrianska FC

1.37

IK Frej creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.87

1.87

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

IK Frej

1.40

Syrianska FC

0.87

allows per match

IK Frej

1.87

Syrianska FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw

69%

IK Frej or Syrianska FC

76%

Draw or Syrianska FC

55%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+

24%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals

82%

IK Frej 2+ goals

51%

IK Frej 3+ goals

24%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

75%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

40%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)

59%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.40 + Syrianska FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

Syrianska FC attack 0.87 + IK Frej defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IK Frej scores more

45%

level

24%

Syrianska FC scores more

31%

IK Frej at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IK Frej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff