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Lovćen vs Grbalj — Second League 2019

Lovćen
Lovćen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Grbalj
Grbalj
10/18/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 12Stadion Sveti Petar Cetinjski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Lovćen37%
×Draw27%
Grbalj36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lovćen
1.23
Grbalj
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 105 away

creates per match

Lovćen
1.10
Grbalj
1.04

allows per match

Lovćen
1.39
Grbalj
1.35

finishing

Lovćen+0.00on par
Grbalj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lovćen ↓

Grbalj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lovćen or draw
64%
Lovćen or Grbalj
73%
Draw or Grbalj
63%

Winning margin

Lovćen wins by 2+
16%
Grbalj wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lovćen 1+ goals
71%
Lovćen 2+ goals
35%
Lovćen 3+ goals
13%
Grbalj 1+ goals
70%
Grbalj 2+ goals
34%
Grbalj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lovćen (draw refunded)
51%
Grbalj (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lovćen at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Grbalj away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lovćen attack 1.10 + Grbalj defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Grbalj attack 1.04 + Lovćen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lovćen scores more
37%
level
27%
Grbalj scores more
36%

Lovćen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lovćen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lovćen vs Grbalj

Grbalj beat Lovćen 2-0 in Second League on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Petar Cetinjski in Cetinje.