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Loures vs Lusitano GC Évora — Taça de Portugal 2018

Loures
Loures
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lusitano GC Évora
Lusitano GC Évora
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Conde Mendia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Loures46%
×Draw25%
Lusitano GC Évora29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loures
1.55
Lusitano GC Évora
1.18

Loures creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Loures
1.60
Lusitano GC Évora
0.75

allows per match

Loures
1.60
Lusitano GC Évora
1.50

finishing

Loures+0.00on par
Lusitano GC Évora+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loures ↓

Lusitano GC Évora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Loures or draw
71%
Loures or Lusitano GC Évora
75%
Draw or Lusitano GC Évora
54%

Winning margin

Loures wins by 2+
23%
Lusitano GC Évora wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Loures 1+ goals
79%
Loures 2+ goals
46%
Loures 3+ goals
20%
Lusitano GC Évora 1+ goals
69%
Lusitano GC Évora 2+ goals
33%
Lusitano GC Évora 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Loures (draw refunded)
61%
Lusitano GC Évora (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loures at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Lusitano GC Évora away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loures attack 1.60 + Lusitano GC Évora defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.55

Lusitano GC Évora attack 0.75 + Loures defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Loures scores more
46%
level
25%
Lusitano GC Évora scores more
29%

Loures at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Loures will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loures vs Lusitano GC Évora

Loures and Lusitano GC Évora drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Conde Mendia in São Julião do Tojal.