Loures 0–0 Benfica Castelo Branco: Result & Stats

Loures

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Benfica Castelo Branco

10/20/2019

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundCampo Conde Mendia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Loures17%

×Draw19%

Benfica Castelo Branco64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LouresExpected goals in this matchBenfica Castelo Branco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

2.30

Loures

1.10

Benfica Castelo Branco

2.30

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 109% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

3.00

1.60

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Loures

1.60

Benfica Castelo Branco

3.00

allows per match

Loures

1.60

Benfica Castelo Branco

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loures+0.00on par

Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loures ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Loures or draw

36%

Loures or Benfica Castelo Branco

81%

Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco

83%

Winning margin

Loures wins by 2+

Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Loures 1+ goals

67%

Loures 2+ goals

30%

Loures 3+ goals

10%

Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals

90%

Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals

67%

Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Loures (draw refunded)

21%

Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Loures at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Loures attack 1.60 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.10

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + Loures defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Loures scores more

17%

level

19%

Benfica Castelo Branco scores more

64%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff