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Loures vs Beira-Mar — Taça de Portugal 2018

Loures
Loures
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Beira-Mar
Beira-Mar
10/2/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo de Jogos José Silva Faria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Loures27%
×Draw21%
Beira-Mar52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loures
1.43
Beira-Mar
2.05

Beira-Mar creates 43% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Loures
1.60
Beira-Mar
2.50

allows per match

Loures
1.60
Beira-Mar
1.25

finishing

Loures+0.00on par
Beira-Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loures ↓

Beira-Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Loures or draw
48%
Loures or Beira-Mar
79%
Draw or Beira-Mar
73%

Winning margin

Loures wins by 2+
12%
Beira-Mar wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Loures 1+ goals
76%
Loures 2+ goals
42%
Loures 3+ goals
17%
Beira-Mar 1+ goals
87%
Beira-Mar 2+ goals
61%
Beira-Mar 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Loures (draw refunded)
34%
Beira-Mar (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loures at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Beira-Mar away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loures attack 1.60 + Beira-Mar defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Beira-Mar attack 2.50 + Loures defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Loures scores more
27%
level
21%
Beira-Mar scores more
52%

Beira-Mar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Beira-Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Loures 0–3 Beira-Mar

Beira-Mar beat Loures 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Jogos José Silva Faria in Loures.