Lourdes 0–1 Peña Sport: Result & Stats

Lourdes

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Peña Sport

10/31/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 3Estadio Luis Asarta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lourdes35%

×Draw27%

Peña Sport39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LourdesExpected goals in this matchPeña Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.33

Lourdes

1.24

Peña Sport

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 93 away

1.25

creates per match

1.38

1.29

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Lourdes

1.25

Peña Sport

1.38

allows per match

Lourdes

1.29

Peña Sport

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lourdes+0.00on par

Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lourdes ↓

Peña Sport →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lourdes or draw

61%

Lourdes or Peña Sport

73%

Draw or Peña Sport

65%

Winning margin

Lourdes wins by 2+

15%

Peña Sport wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lourdes 1+ goals

71%

Lourdes 2+ goals

35%

Lourdes 3+ goals

13%

Peña Sport 1+ goals

74%

Peña Sport 2+ goals

38%

Peña Sport 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lourdes (draw refunded)

47%

Peña Sport (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lourdes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lourdes attack 1.25 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Lourdes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lourdes scores more

35%

level

27%

Peña Sport scores more

39%

Peña Sport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff