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Lourdes vs Pamplona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lourdes
Lourdes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pamplona
Pamplona
11/23/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 14Estadio Luis Asarta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lourdes36%
×Draw27%
Pamplona36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lourdes
1.22
Pamplona
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 110 away

creates per match

Lourdes
1.25
Pamplona
1.15

allows per match

Lourdes
1.29
Pamplona
1.19

finishing

Lourdes+0.00on par
Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lourdes ↓

Pamplona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lourdes or draw
64%
Lourdes or Pamplona
73%
Draw or Pamplona
64%

Winning margin

Lourdes wins by 2+
16%
Pamplona wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lourdes 1+ goals
70%
Lourdes 2+ goals
34%
Lourdes 3+ goals
12%
Pamplona 1+ goals
70%
Pamplona 2+ goals
34%
Pamplona 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lourdes (draw refunded)
50%
Pamplona (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lourdes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lourdes attack 1.25 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

Pamplona attack 1.15 + Lourdes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Lourdes scores more
36%
level
27%
Pamplona scores more
36%

Lourdes at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Lourdes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Lourdes 0–1 Pamplona

Pamplona beat Lourdes 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Asarta in Tudela.