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Lourdes vs Fontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lourdes
Lourdes
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fontellas
Fontellas
3/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 20Campo Santa Quiteria 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Lourdes66%
×Draw19%
Fontellas15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lourdes
2.20
Fontellas
0.93

Lourdes creates 137% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lourdes
1.25
Fontellas
0.57

allows per match

Lourdes
1.29
Fontellas
3.14

finishing

Lourdes+0.00on par
Fontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lourdes ↓

Fontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lourdes or draw
85%
Lourdes or Fontellas
81%
Draw or Fontellas
34%

Winning margin

Lourdes wins by 2+
42%
Fontellas wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lourdes 1+ goals
89%
Lourdes 2+ goals
64%
Lourdes 3+ goals
37%
Fontellas 1+ goals
61%
Fontellas 2+ goals
24%
Fontellas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lourdes (draw refunded)
82%
Fontellas (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lourdes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

Fontellas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lourdes attack 1.25 + Fontellas defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.20

Fontellas attack 0.57 + Lourdes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Lourdes scores more
66%
level
19%
Fontellas scores more
15%

Lourdes at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Lourdes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Lourdes 3–1 Fontellas

Lourdes beat Fontellas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Santa Quiteria 2 in Tudela.