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Louny vs Újezd Praha 4 — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Louny
Louny
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Újezd Praha 4
Újezd Praha 4
11/5/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 14Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Louny33%
×Draw22%
Újezd Praha 445%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louny
1.56
Újezd Praha 4
1.85

Újezd Praha 4 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 59 away

creates per match

Louny
1.60
Újezd Praha 4
1.85

allows per match

Louny
1.84
Újezd Praha 4
1.51

finishing

Louny+0.00on par
Újezd Praha 4+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louny ↓

Újezd Praha 4 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Louny or draw
55%
Louny or Újezd Praha 4
78%
Draw or Újezd Praha 4
67%

Winning margin

Louny wins by 2+
16%
Újezd Praha 4 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Louny 1+ goals
79%
Louny 2+ goals
46%
Louny 3+ goals
21%
Újezd Praha 4 1+ goals
84%
Újezd Praha 4 2+ goals
55%
Újezd Praha 4 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Louny (draw refunded)
42%
Újezd Praha 4 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louny at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Újezd Praha 4 away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.51 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louny attack 1.60 + Újezd Praha 4 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.56

Újezd Praha 4 attack 1.85 + Louny defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Louny scores more
33%
level
22%
Újezd Praha 4 scores more
45%

Újezd Praha 4 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Újezd Praha 4 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Louny 0–2 Újezd Praha 4

Újezd Praha 4 beat Louny 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Louny.