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Louny vs Olympie Březová — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Louny
Louny
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Olympie Březová
Olympie Březová
4/2/20234. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 20Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Louny46%
×Draw22%
Olympie Březová32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louny
1.96
Olympie Březová
1.61

Louny creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 84 away

creates per match

Louny
1.60
Olympie Březová
1.38

allows per match

Louny
1.84
Olympie Březová
2.31

finishing

Louny+0.00on par
Olympie Březová+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louny ↓

Olympie Březová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Louny or draw
68%
Louny or Olympie Březová
78%
Draw or Olympie Březová
54%

Winning margin

Louny wins by 2+
26%
Olympie Březová wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Louny 1+ goals
86%
Louny 2+ goals
58%
Louny 3+ goals
31%
Olympie Březová 1+ goals
80%
Olympie Březová 2+ goals
48%
Olympie Březová 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Louny (draw refunded)
59%
Olympie Březová (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louny at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Olympie Březová away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louny attack 1.60 + Olympie Březová defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.96

Olympie Březová attack 1.38 + Louny defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Louny scores more
46%
level
22%
Olympie Březová scores more
32%

Louny at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Louny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Louny vs Olympie Březová

Olympie Březová beat Louny 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Louny.