Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Louny vs Český Brod — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Louny
Louny
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Český Brod
Český Brod
8/28/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 4Městský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Louny38%
×Draw25%
Český Brod38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louny
1.46
Český Brod
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 62 away

creates per match

Louny
1.60
Český Brod
1.08

allows per match

Louny
1.84
Český Brod
1.31

finishing

Louny+0.00on par
Český Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louny ↓

Český Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Louny or draw
62%
Louny or Český Brod
75%
Draw or Český Brod
62%

Winning margin

Louny wins by 2+
18%
Český Brod wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Louny 1+ goals
77%
Louny 2+ goals
43%
Louny 3+ goals
18%
Český Brod 1+ goals
77%
Český Brod 2+ goals
43%
Český Brod 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Louny (draw refunded)
50%
Český Brod (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louny at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Český Brod away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louny attack 1.60 + Český Brod defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Český Brod attack 1.08 + Louny defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Louny scores more
38%
level
25%
Český Brod scores more
38%

Louny at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Louny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Louny 1–0 Český Brod

Louny beat Český Brod 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Městský stadion in Louny.