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Louletano vs Vitória de Sernache — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round 2022

Louletano
Louletano
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vitória de Sernache
Vitória de Sernache
T. Sousa 84'
M. Santos 63'
B. dos Santos 31' (pen)
5/10/2026Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion RoundCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round · Promotion Round - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Louletano20%
×Draw23%
Vitória de Sernache57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louletano
1.00
Vitória de Sernache
1.83

Vitória de Sernache creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Louletano
1.33
Vitória de Sernache
2.33

allows per match

Louletano
1.33
Vitória de Sernache
0.67

finishing

Louletano+0.00on par
Vitória de Sernache+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louletano ↓

Vitória de Sernache →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Louletano or draw
43%
Louletano or Vitória de Sernache
77%
Draw or Vitória de Sernache
80%

Winning margin

Louletano wins by 2+
7%
Vitória de Sernache wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Louletano 1+ goals
63%
Louletano 2+ goals
26%
Louletano 3+ goals
8%
Vitória de Sernache 1+ goals
84%
Vitória de Sernache 2+ goals
54%
Vitória de Sernache 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Louletano (draw refunded)
26%
Vitória de Sernache (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louletano at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Vitória de Sernache away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louletano attack 1.33 + Vitória de Sernache defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vitória de Sernache attack 2.33 + Louletano defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Louletano scores more
20%
level
23%
Vitória de Sernache scores more
57%

Vitória de Sernache at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vitória de Sernache will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
B. dos SantosPenalty
63'
M. Santos
84'
T. Sousa
90+2'
R. Vilela
90+3'
Gustavo Daris

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Louletano vs Vitória de Sernache

Vitória de Sernache beat Louletano 2-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Promotion Round on May 10, 2026.

Goals: B. dos Santos (31' pen), M. Santos (63'), T. Sousa (84').