Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Louletano vs Pinhalnovense — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H 2020

Louletano
Louletano
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pinhalnovense
Pinhalnovense
10/23/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group HCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H · Group H - 4Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Louletano55%
×Draw23%
Pinhalnovense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louletano
1.80
Pinhalnovense
1.05

Louletano creates 71% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Louletano
1.60
Pinhalnovense
1.40

allows per match

Louletano
0.70
Pinhalnovense
2.00

finishing

Louletano+0.00on par
Pinhalnovense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louletano ↓

Pinhalnovense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Louletano or draw
78%
Louletano or Pinhalnovense
77%
Draw or Pinhalnovense
45%

Winning margin

Louletano wins by 2+
31%
Pinhalnovense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Louletano 1+ goals
83%
Louletano 2+ goals
54%
Louletano 3+ goals
27%
Pinhalnovense 1+ goals
65%
Pinhalnovense 2+ goals
28%
Pinhalnovense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Louletano (draw refunded)
71%
Pinhalnovense (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louletano at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Pinhalnovense away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louletano attack 1.60 + Pinhalnovense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Pinhalnovense attack 1.40 + Louletano defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Louletano scores more
55%
level
23%
Pinhalnovense scores more
22%

Louletano at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Louletano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H: Louletano 5–0 Pinhalnovense

Louletano beat Pinhalnovense 5-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group H on October 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Do Algarve in São João da Venda.