Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Louletano vs Pacos Ferreira — Taça de Portugal 2018

Louletano
Louletano
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pacos Ferreira
Pacos Ferreira
10/19/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Louletano48%
×Draw25%
Pacos Ferreira27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Louletano
1.63
Pacos Ferreira
1.16

Louletano creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Louletano
2.00
Pacos Ferreira
1.75

allows per match

Louletano
0.57
Pacos Ferreira
1.25

finishing

Louletano+0.00on par
Pacos Ferreira+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louletano ↓

Pacos Ferreira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Louletano or draw
73%
Louletano or Pacos Ferreira
75%
Draw or Pacos Ferreira
52%

Winning margin

Louletano wins by 2+
25%
Pacos Ferreira wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Louletano 1+ goals
80%
Louletano 2+ goals
48%
Louletano 3+ goals
22%
Pacos Ferreira 1+ goals
69%
Pacos Ferreira 2+ goals
32%
Pacos Ferreira 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Louletano (draw refunded)
64%
Pacos Ferreira (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louletano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Pacos Ferreira away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louletano attack 2.00 + Pacos Ferreira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pacos Ferreira attack 1.75 + Louletano defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Louletano scores more
48%
level
25%
Pacos Ferreira scores more
27%

Louletano at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Louletano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Louletano 0–0 Pacos Ferreira

Louletano and Pacos Ferreira drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Do Algarve in São João da Venda.