Louletano 1–0 Imortal Albufeira: Result & Stats

Louletano

1 – 0

Imortal Albufeira

9/10/2023

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Loulé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Louletano50%

×Draw28%

Imortal Albufeira22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LouletanoExpected goals in this matchImortal Albufeira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.78

Louletano

1.33

Imortal Albufeira

0.78

Louletano creates 71% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.57

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Louletano

2.00

Imortal Albufeira

1.00

allows per match

Louletano

0.57

Imortal Albufeira

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louletano+0.00on par

Imortal Albufeira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louletano ↓

Imortal Albufeira →

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Louletano or draw

78%

Louletano or Imortal Albufeira

72%

Draw or Imortal Albufeira

50%

Winning margin

Louletano wins by 2+

24%

Imortal Albufeira wins by 2+

Team goals

Louletano 1+ goals

74%

Louletano 2+ goals

38%

Louletano 3+ goals

15%

Imortal Albufeira 1+ goals

54%

Imortal Albufeira 2+ goals

18%

Imortal Albufeira 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Louletano (draw refunded)

69%

Imortal Albufeira (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Louletano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Imortal Albufeira away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Louletano attack 2.00 + Imortal Albufeira defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Imortal Albufeira attack 1.00 + Louletano defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Louletano scores more

50%

level

28%

Imortal Albufeira scores more

22%

Louletano at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Louletano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff