Louletano 1–2 Estrela: Result & Stats

Louletano

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Estrela

10/16/2021

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Louletano64%

×Draw20%

Estrela16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LouletanoExpected goals in this matchEstrela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.95

Louletano

2.11

Estrela

0.95

Louletano creates 122% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

0.57

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Louletano

2.00

Estrela

1.33

allows per match

Louletano

0.57

Estrela

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Louletano+0.00on par

Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Louletano ↓

Estrela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Louletano or draw

84%

Louletano or Estrela

80%

Draw or Estrela

36%

Winning margin

Louletano wins by 2+

40%

Estrela wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Louletano 1+ goals

88%

Louletano 2+ goals

62%

Louletano 3+ goals

35%

Estrela 1+ goals

61%

Estrela 2+ goals

25%

Estrela 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Louletano (draw refunded)

80%

Estrela (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Louletano at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Louletano attack 2.00 + Estrela defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.11

Estrela attack 1.33 + Louletano defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Louletano scores more

64%

level

20%

Estrela scores more

16%

Louletano at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Louletano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff